Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus and Executive Director, Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, has faulted President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s N27.5 trillion budget for 2024.
Iledare disclosed his views regarding Tinubu’s recent budget presentation to the National Assembly in an interview with DAILY POST on Monday.
He said the significant assumptions on which 2024 is premised are “stochastic and may not be achievable.”
According to the Emeritus Professor, the projected Gross Domestic Product growth of 3.36 per cent was optimistic but lacked empirical evidence to support the economic growth assumption.
He also expressed concern about the daily crude oil production of 1.78 barrels per day and the 77.96 USD per barrel benchmark, noting that it is unrealistic.
Consequently, Iledare opined that the projection would make the budget susceptible to the N9.18 trillion estimated budget deficit.
“The budget is premised on assumptions that are not deterministic but highly stochastic. First, the GDP growth of 3.76 per cent, which is highly optimistic, has no empirical evidence to support that growth assumption. Moreover, GDP growth is a performance outcome and not necessarily a classical input to drive the budget.
“Yes, the oil price assumed in the budget is conservative but highly stochastic. However, adding 500k bbl/day is less likely than not within the next few months.
“Indeed, assuming 1,780k bbl/day is seemingly like daydreaming to me. This makes the budget highly susceptible to a larger deficit than projected.
“Even if there is a significant cut in fiscal irresponsibility of some executives of juicy Ministries, Departments, and Agencies, MDAs, it will make no substantial impact on the budget deficit.
“However, the government needs this budget to jump-start the economy, but one can only hope for fiscal discipline and accountability from juicy MDAs.
“I am also not burdened with a large budget deficit if the deficit is to build infrastructure and capacity”, he told DAILY POST.
